Digital Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Land Cover Changes in Baghdad Governorate Using Remote Sensing Data for the Period (1995-2025

Abstract

Digital classification processes are a fundamental tool for monitoring and analyzing spatiotemporal changes in land cover and land use. This research aims to track these transformations in Baghdad Province over a three-decade period، spanning from 1995 to 2025. The methodology relies on processing a series of satellite imagery from Landsat 5، 8، and 9، employing a comparative approach between unsupervised classification based on automated statistical clustering algorithms and supervised classification، which utilizes training samples to minimize spectral overlap and enhance accuracy. The findings reveal radical shifts in the region's geographical structure. We observe a consistent and extensive urban expansion، which has consumed vast land areas and reached near-total urban saturation in recent years. Conversely، the study uncovers a critical and alarming decline in water bodies، characterized by the shrinkage of surface water areas and the desiccation of significant portions of these areas. This trend coincides with a notable drop in the Tigris River's water levels، confirming the exacerbation of water scarcity and the decline in water supplies reaching the capital. Furthermore، the study documents the severe degradation of green spaces، with orchards and the surrounding green belt receding in favour of unregulated urban encroachment. This transition has led to an environmental imbalance and a significant alteration of the city’s geographical identity. The research concludes that Baghdad is undergoing an irregular urban transformation that has negatively impacted its natural resources. This situation places policymakers and urban planners under an urgent responsibility to adopt immediate strategies to protect the remaining water and vegetation resources، ensuring the capital's sustainability amidst increasing climatic challenges and population growth.