CRU-Informed Forecasting of Rainfall Regions in Diyala Province

Abstract

The research aims to predict the rain map of Diyala governorate by relying on the data of the Climate Research Unit, by drawing the rain map for each decade during the period of time (1941-1950) (2011-2020), thus predicting the rainy map for the next three decades (2021-2030), (2031-2040) and (2041-2050), previously verified the extent to which that data approached data from the Earth's climate station by applying a T-test that showed no discrepancies between the data from the climate station and the space observation station.

A simple regression analysis was also used to determine the direction of rain in the region and a downward trend was found with a strong reverse correlation value ranging from -0.7 to 0.8- to observation points. Through the mapping of the territories, it became clear that there was a change in the area of the territories, as the rain region turned less than (200 mm) towards widening from (16%) of the area of study in the decade (1941-1950) to (45%) in the contract (2011-2020) and is expected to be (65%) in the contract (2041-2050), the shrinking area of rainy territory (300 mm and above) also shows From (20%) of the study area in the first decade of the study to (6%) in the last decade and is expected to become (3%) only during the contract (2041-2050).