The Impact of Climatic Elements on Vegetation Cover Using the NDVI Index in Ashur Subdistrict-Al-Shirqat District

Abstract

This research presents an extensive and comprehensive study of the reciprocal relationship between climatic elements and vegetation dynamics in the Makhmur region, spanning a three-decade time series from 1994 to 2024. Analytical results revealed significant thermal characteristics, with the general annual mean temperature recorded at 21.86°C. A sharp seasonal variation was observed, as temperatures peaked in July at an average of 35.9°C, while dropping to a minimum of 7.4°C in January. Furthermore, the study of maximum temperatures indicated that the region is subject to intense solar radiation during the summer, exceeding 44.9°C. This reinforces the region's classification within arid, high-temperature environments that stimulate evaporation and lead to the disintegration of soil structure.Regarding water resources, the study demonstrated that the region suffers from limited precipitation and temporal fluctuation, with an annual total of 245.9 mm. Rainfall is predominantly concentrated in winter and completely absent during the summer, rendering vegetation growth contingent upon short humid periods. This water deficit is further exacerbated by high annual evaporation rates, reaching 262.53 mm, alongside peak wind activity in summer at speeds of 2.42 m/s. These factors collectively accelerate wind erosion and increase the physiological stress on both natural vegetation and agricultural crops.On the technical analysis level using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the outputs of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) confirmed a tangible deterioration in vegetation density. The area of "poor" vegetation cover increased to constitute 84.96% of the total area in 2024, up from 82.17% in 1994. This qualitative shift signifies the loss of dense green spaces and their transformation into barren or sparsely vegetated lands due to consecutive drought years, which accounted for 42% of the climatic cases observed during the study period.